The ultimate question is how far down is the market to date?
It's hard to tell exactly, but based on resale prices it looks like a broad average of 20%-25% from the peak of the market ( late 2007 into the 1st part of 2008). Miller Samuel and Prudential Douglas Elliman track this number and to quote Jonathan Miller, "it has moved sideways this quarter" which means basically it's moving around by a point or two in either direction. Miller expects it to move sideways for a while.
The two other big brokerages have released their 3rd quarter report this week also:
Corcoran and Halstead. IN addition Core Group has a monthly report. Most of the these reports show a lower drop than i just stated but those figures include new development closings on contracts that may have occurred as far back as 2007. Thats why i use the PDE/Miller Samuel resale figure plus what i know of contracts and talking to participants out there in the marketplace. The Core report is interesting because it tracks contracts as opposed to closed sales and although they note that sometimes this produces some minor errors, it also means they can be running 60-90 days ahead of the other reports.
I would have to say that the bare minimum drop for anything is 15% from the peak although plenty of people still deny this and say it's down only 10%. Some locations, properties and/or apartment types have also been hit worse than the 20%-25% average drop.
It's hard to tell exactly, but based on resale prices it looks like a broad average of 20%-25% from the peak of the market ( late 2007 into the 1st part of 2008). Miller Samuel and Prudential Douglas Elliman track this number and to quote Jonathan Miller, "it has moved sideways this quarter" which means basically it's moving around by a point or two in either direction. Miller expects it to move sideways for a while.
The two other big brokerages have released their 3rd quarter report this week also:
Corcoran and Halstead. IN addition Core Group has a monthly report. Most of the these reports show a lower drop than i just stated but those figures include new development closings on contracts that may have occurred as far back as 2007. Thats why i use the PDE/Miller Samuel resale figure plus what i know of contracts and talking to participants out there in the marketplace. The Core report is interesting because it tracks contracts as opposed to closed sales and although they note that sometimes this produces some minor errors, it also means they can be running 60-90 days ahead of the other reports.
I would have to say that the bare minimum drop for anything is 15% from the peak although plenty of people still deny this and say it's down only 10%. Some locations, properties and/or apartment types have also been hit worse than the 20%-25% average drop.
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